Repeatedly learning from generated outputs can narrow the next generation.
When a model trains on outputs from an earlier model, uncommon patterns can be lost or distorted over repeated rounds. Shumailov and colleagues demonstrated this model-collapse process in experiments with generative models. The result is a reason to track where training data came from—not proof that every synthetic dataset inevitably makes a model collapse.
A 2025 ICML study compared three workflows across Gaussian estimation, kernel-density estimation, and language-model fine-tuning. The results depended on whether each generation replaced the data that came before or kept it in the training set.
Replace the original examplesTrain each new generation only on outputs from the previous model. This workflow collapsed in all three settings studied.
Accumulate data; keep the originalsKeep original examples in the growing set and add new synthetic examples. In the authors’ experiments, test losses remained stable even as the original data became a smaller share of the total.
Sample a fixed-size mixtureChoose a fixed-size subset from accumulated real and synthetic data for each round. The study observed gradual degradation rather than explosive collapse in this workflow.
These findings show why “trained on synthetic data” is too broad a description. They reflect specific workflows and task settings; they do not predict every production pipeline or resolve separate questions about data quality, privacy, or provenance.
A practical safeguard is to preserve source data and lineage, control the share of generated examples, and evaluate each new model on an untouched test set that was not produced by the same generator.