Different experiments answer different questions.
Research on coding tools includes short, controlled exercises, assistants used during ordinary company work, and developers changing mature projects they already know. Those settings measure different tasks with different outcomes. Their percentages are not a single league table.
One timed task · 2023A controlled GitHub Copilot experiment reported 55.8% shorter completion time for the participants who finished one self-contained JavaScript HTTP-server task. It recruited 95 developers, but 35 completed the task and follow-up survey; that result does not describe an entire software team’s work.
Work in three companies · published 2026Three randomized field experiments across 4,867 developers reported a 26.08% increase in weekly task completions for developers using the assistant (standard error 10.3%). The measured outcome was task count in those companies.
Familiar open-source repositories · 2025In METR’s randomized study, 16 experienced developers completed 246 tasks on mature projects they knew well. With the early-2025 tools tested, tasks took 19% longer on average; the reported confidence interval ranged from 2% to 39% longer.
A later METR follow-up · 2026METR said its newer experiment could not reliably estimate the current effect: developers who did not want to work without AI were less likely to participate, and tracking time was unreliable for some people using multiple agents. The result is uncertainty, not a clean replacement percentage.
These findings can all be true in their own settings. A short, bounded exercise, a weekly workplace task count, and a change to a familiar codebase are not interchangeable measures. Tool versions and usage habits also change over time.